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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to MIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP