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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Monday 2019-12-02 · 20:15 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

MIN
51.8%
SEA
48.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIN on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • SEA offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.170 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.192 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 26
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

MIN

Ben Gedeon LB Out Concussion
Linval Joseph DT Questionable Knee
Harrison Smith S Questionable Hamstring
Shamar Stephen DT Questionable Knee
Anthony Harris S Questionable Groin
Adam Thielen WR Questionable Hamstring

SEA

Nick Bellore RB Doubtful Quadricep
Neiko Thorpe CB Doubtful Groin
Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Hamstring
Luke Willson TE Questionable Hamstring
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Core
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Ankle
Al Woods DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 30
–
SEA 37

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:16 TD MIN (8:16) 33-D.Cook right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 00:14 TD SEA (:14) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – SEA 6
  • Q2 05:18 TD MIN (5:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 48-J.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Harris (96-A.Watts) at SEA 20. 41-A.Harris for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – SEA 7
  • Q2 01:02 FG SEA (1:02) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 14 – SEA 10
  • Q2 00:01 FG MIN (:01) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 17 – SEA 10
  • Q3 09:06 TD SEA (9:06) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 20-R.Penny left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – SEA 16
  • Q3 05:49 FG SEA (5:49) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 17 – SEA 20
  • Q3 00:13 TD SEA (:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – SEA 26
  • Q4 13:37 TD SEA (13:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 20-R.Penny for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – SEA 33
  • Q4 12:59 TD MIN (12:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 11-L.Treadwell for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – SEA 34
  • Q4 07:19 TD MIN (7:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 30 – SEA 34
  • Q4 00:25 FG SEA (:25) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 30 – SEA 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 25%

    (11:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to MIN 17, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:45) 2-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to SEA 12, Center-58-A.Cutting. 83-D.Moore to SEA 21 for 9 yards (40-K.Brothers).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to MIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:49) 2-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to SEA 7, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-31-A.Abdullah.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (1:02) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:28) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to SEA 29, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (5:49) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:07) 2-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to SEA 24, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:18) (Punt formation) 25-T.Homer right end pushed ob at MIN 39 for 29 yards (21-M.Hughes).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to MIN 16, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 84-I.Smith.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (:25) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.