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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 2-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to SEA 7, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-31-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.17 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP