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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 34 – Minnesota Vikings 30

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to MIN 16, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.16 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -1.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP