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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 18

Seattle Seahawks 34 – Minnesota Vikings 30

What Actually Happened

(:25) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.32 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model