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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 2-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to SEA 12, Center-58-A.Cutting. 83-D.Moore to SEA 21 for 9 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model