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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 25

Atlanta Falcons 6 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 7-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model