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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Thursday 2019-11-28 · 20:20 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

NO
53.9%
ATL
46.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 25
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Ankle
Zach Line RB Out Knee
Andrus Peat G Out Forearm
Will Clapp C Questionable Back
Deonte Harty WR Questionable Hamstring
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Hamstring

ATL

Austin Hooper TE Out Knee
Julio Jones WR Questionable Shoulder
Luke Stocker TE Questionable Back
Sharrod Neasman S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 26
–
ATL 18

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:12 TD NO (11:12) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 7-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – ATL 0
  • Q2 12:41 TD ATL (12:41) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 87-J.Graham for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – ATL 6
  • Q2 09:09 FG NO (9:09) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 10 – ATL 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD NO (2:00) Taysom Hill in at QB (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – ATL 6
  • Q2 00:08 FG ATL (:08) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. NO 17 – ATL 9
  • Q3 05:59 FG NO (5:59) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 20 – ATL 9
  • Q4 10:19 FG NO (10:19) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 23 – ATL 9
  • Q4 06:32 FG NO (6:32) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 26 – ATL 9
  • Q4 03:31 TD ATL (3:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-R.Gage for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 26 – ATL 15
  • Q4 02:00 FG ATL (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. NO 26 – ATL 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:11) 9-R.Allen punts 8 yards to ATL 30, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-41-S.Neasman. Punt was deflected by NO T.Hill

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%

    (7:54) 9-R.Allen punts 38 yards to NO 2, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:57) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to ATL 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 13-C.Blake (94-C.Jordan).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (13:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to ATL 45, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (9:09) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (4:01) 7-Y.Koo 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 35%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles left tackle to NO 40 for 9 yards (43-M.Williams).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to ATL 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 38-K.Barner to ATL 34 for 2 yards (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:53) 9-R.Allen punts 41 yards to NO 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harris to NO 30 for no gain (53-J.Grace). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 30.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%

    (5:59) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

    (10:19) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 84%

    (6:32) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 18-C.Ridley to NO 49 for 14 yards (23-M.Lattimore).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 47%

    (:44) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 48 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).