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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to ATL 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 38-K.Barner to ATL 34 for 2 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.31 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model