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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model