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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 23 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model