Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 15 – New Orleans Saints 26

(2:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 18-C.Ridley to NO 49 for 14 yards (23-M.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.49 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -2.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP