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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 7 at the 40
Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 7
What Actually Happened
(7:54) 9-R.Allen punts 38 yards to NO 2, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
+0.39 EP
Model's Pick
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.00 EP
- 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.66 EP
KICK
+0.35 EP
- 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
- 43% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT
+0.25 EP
What Happened
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
