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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to ATL 25, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.71 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 78, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model