4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 2

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 13-C.Blake (94-C.Jordan).

The Three Options

GO +4.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 2, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model