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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 12

Baltimore Ravens 14 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.00 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model