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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SF
32.0%
BAL
68.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.193 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.314 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.159 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.318 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.160 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 21
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SF

Dee Ford DE Out Quadricep
Dante Pettis WR Out Knee
Matt Breida RB Questionable Ankle
Joe Staley T Questionable Finger

BAL

Miles Boykin WR Questionable Ankle
Nick Boyle TE Questionable Ankle
Bradley Bozeman C Questionable Ankle
Matt Judon LB Questionable Ankle
Domata Peko DT Questionable Knee
Michael Pierce DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 17
–
BAL 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:00 TD SF (12:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 05:47 TD BAL (5:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – BAL 6
  • Q2 12:02 TD BAL (12:02) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – BAL 13
  • Q2 09:22 TD SF (9:22) 31-R.Mostert right tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – BAL 14
  • Q2 02:01 FG BAL (2:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. SF 14 – BAL 17
  • Q3 03:41 FG SF (3:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 17 – BAL 17
  • Q4 00:03 FG BAL (:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. SF 17 – BAL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 66%

    (12:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to SF 16, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:24) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BAL 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-41-E.Moseley.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 53%

    (5:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 81-H.Hurst pushed ob at SF 36 for 2 yards (25-R.Sherman).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (2:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 66%

    (:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (44-M.Humphrey), Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (3:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:43) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to SF 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-41-A.Levine Sr..

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:34) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BAL 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 41 for 18 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 47%

    (9:41) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews (54-F.Warner).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 61%

    (6:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 85-G.Kittle (93-C.Wormley).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:39) 8-L.Jackson right guard to BAL 47 for 3 yards (96-S.Day; 20-J.Ward).