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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (44-M.Humphrey), Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.27 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model