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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.78 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -2.06 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model