Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 17 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(1:43) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to SF 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-41-A.Levine Sr..

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.62 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model