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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 17 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 8-L.Jackson right guard to BAL 47 for 3 yards (96-S.Day; 20-J.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model