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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to SF 16, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.26 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model