Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 92

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

(2:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to TB 46, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.81 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model