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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 💨 Windy Spread -3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
49.3%
JAX
50.7%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Nick Foles (JAX): +0.136 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TB 21
–
JAX 22
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

TB

Scott Miller WR Out Hamstring
Anthony Nelson LB Out Hamstring
M.J. Stewart CB Out Knee
Carl Nassib LB Questionable Illness

JAX

Seth DeValve TE Out Oblique
Ronnie Harrison S Out Concussion
Tre Herndon CB Questionable Shoulder
Myles Jack LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 28
–
JAX 11

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:54 TD TB (2:54) 25-P.Barber up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 02:46 TD TB (2:46) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles sacked at JAX 16 for -9 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at JAX 14. 45-D.White for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – JAX 0
  • Q2 08:02 TD TB (8:02) 25-P.Barber up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 21 – JAX 0
  • Q2 01:00 FG TB (1:00) 9-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 25 – JAX 0
  • Q3 05:51 FG JAX (5:51) 4-J.Lambo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TB 25 – JAX 3
  • Q4 13:41 TD JAX (13:41) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 12-D.Westbrook for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 25 – JAX 9
  • Q4 02:23 FG TB (2:23) 9-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 28 – JAX 11

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 17 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 43%

    (8:52) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TB 27, Center-46-M.Orzech. 22-T.Logan pushed ob at TB 32 for 5 yards (22-Co.Davis).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 18%

    (3:30) 8-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to JAX 21, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook. PENALTY on JAX-84-K.Cole, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 21.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to TB 46, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (1:00) 9-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to TB 21, Center-46-M.Orzech. 22-T.Logan pushed ob at TB 34 for 13 yards (26-J.Wilson).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 34 yards to TB 40, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-46-M.Orzech.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 19%

    (10:42) 3-J.Winston up the middle to JAX 49 for 2 yards (54-D.Payne).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 60%

    (5:51) 4-J.Lambo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 54%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at JAX 46 for -9 yards (41-J.Allen).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:32) 8-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to JAX 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 12-D.Westbrook to TB 37 for 43 yards (96-S.Acho).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 90%

    (9:18) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 84-K.Cole to TB 8 for 11 yards (29-R.Smith).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:02) 8-B.Pinion punts 63 yards to JAX 35, Center-97-Z.Triner. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 46 for 11 yards (31-J.Whitehead). PENALTY on JAX-13-M.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40. Penalty on JAX-58-A.Calitro, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 90%

    (2:23) 9-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:45) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II sacked at JAX 13 for -10 yards (96-S.Acho). FUMBLES (96-S.Acho) [96-S.Acho], recovered by JAX-74-C.Robinson at JAX 5. 74-C.Robinson to JAX 5 for no gain (91-B.Allen).