Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25

(12:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 34 yards to TB 40, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-46-M.Orzech.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model