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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 35

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 4-J.Lambo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.57 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model