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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.26 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model