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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 11 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25

What Actually Happened

(9:18) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 84-K.Cole to TB 8 for 11 yards (29-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.02 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model