Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 98

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 – Jacksonville Jaguars 11

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 8-B.Pinion punts 63 yards to JAX 35, Center-97-Z.Triner. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 46 for 11 yards (31-J.Whitehead). PENALTY on JAX-13-M.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40. Penalty on JAX-58-A.Calitro, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.65 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.50 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 98, worth -6.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model