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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 2-B.Colquitt punts 26 yards to DET 13, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.98 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP