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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 12.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DET
34.1%
MIN
65.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): +0.254 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET on 4 more days rest than MIN
  • MIN defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
MIN 28
Projected margin: MIN by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DET

Da'Shawn Hand DE Out Ankle
Matthew Stafford QB Out Hip
Austin Bryant DE Doubtful Hip
Jamal Agnew CB Questionable Ankle
Rashaan Melvin CB Questionable Ribs

MIN

Adam Thielen WR Doubtful Hamstring
Riley Reiff T Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 7
–
MIN 20

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:52 TD MIN (5:52) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 81-O.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 04:45 FG MIN (4:45) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. DET 0 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:25 TD MIN (:25) 33-D.Cook right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – MIN 16
  • Q4 15:00 FG MIN (15:00) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. DET 0 – MIN 20
  • Q4 02:14 TD DET (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – MIN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:18) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to MIN 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 42 for 17 yards (82-L.Thomas).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 44%

    (12:01) 2-B.Colquitt punts 30 yards to DET 15, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on MIN-91-S.Weatherly, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 15.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:38) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 18 for 5 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 60%

    (12:02) 2-B.Colquitt punts 26 yards to DET 13, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (10:05) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to MIN 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes pushed ob at MIN 35 for 10 yards (82-L.Thomas).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (4:45) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 84%

    (1:10) 5-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:43) 2-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to DET 15, Center-58-A.Cutting. 80-D.Amendola to DET 18 for 3 yards (38-K.Boyd).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:21) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-38-M.Ford.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:38) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to DET 19, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:17) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to MIN 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 32 for 11 yards (82-L.Thomas, 54-S.Longa).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:07) 2-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to DET 23, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (15:00) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 28%

    (10:09) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to MIN 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 81-O.Johnson.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (5:48) 2-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to DET 17, Center-58-A.Cutting. 80-D.Amendola to DET 25 for 8 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 47%

    (1:50) 23-M.Boone left tackle to DET 44 for no gain (91-A.Robinson).