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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 27

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 5-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model