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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 2-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to DET 15, Center-58-A.Cutting. 80-D.Amendola to DET 18 for 3 yards (38-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model