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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 2-B.Colquitt punts 30 yards to DET 15, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola. PENALTY on MIN-91-S.Weatherly, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.77 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model