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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 74

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-38-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.99 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP