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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to DET 19, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model