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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 76

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to MIN 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 32 for 11 yards (82-L.Thomas, 54-S.Longa).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.20 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model