Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 0

(5:07) 2-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to DET 23, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model