Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

(1:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to LAC 20, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.81 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model