Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- JAX offense: -0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- LAC offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- Gardner Minshew (JAX): -0.021 EPA/dropback in prior starts (JAX starting Gardner Minshew in place of Nick Foles)
- JAX defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 14
LAC
JAX
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:27 FG JAX (7:27) 4-J.Lambo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. LAC 0 – JAX 3
- Q1 05:50 TD LAC (5:50) 25-M.Gordon left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – JAX 3
- Q2 05:23 TD LAC (5:23) 34-D.Watt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – JAX 3
- Q2 01:42 TD LAC (1:42) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 86-H.Henry for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – JAX 3
- Q2 00:08 FG LAC (:08) 4-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 24 – JAX 3
- Q3 14:06 TD LAC (14:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-Y.Ngakoue]. LAC 30 – JAX 3
- Q3 05:55 TD JAX (5:55) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 86-N.O'Leary for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 31 – JAX 9
- Q3 02:01 TD LAC (2:01) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC-81-M.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LAC 37 – JAX 10
- Q4 10:59 TD LAC (10:59) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 88-V.Green for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 44 – JAX 10
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(7:27) 4-J.Lambo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EPp(convert) 69%
(4:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(11:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to LAC 24, Center-46-M.Orzech. 20-D.King to LAC 25 for 1 yard (40-B.Watson; 43-J.Giles-Harris).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to LAC 20, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(1:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to LAC 20, Center-46-M.Orzech. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 20, ball out of bounds at LAC 21.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(11:44) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 41 for 2 yards (58-T.Davis).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 23%
(9:19) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke pass short left to 13-M.Walker pushed ob at LAC 43 for 9 yards (15-J.Guyton).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 27-L.Fournette to JAX 38 for -1 yards (33-D.James).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(10:31) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to LAC 24, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 20-D.King.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(9:29) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to JAX 17, Center-45-C.Mazza. 13-M.Walker to JAX 22 for 5 yards (45-C.Mazza). PENALTY on JAX-85-C.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 22.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 62%
(5:40) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Cole.