Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

(1:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to LAC 20, Center-46-M.Orzech. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 20, ball out of bounds at LAC 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model