4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 41 for 2 yards (58-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.21 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model