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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 38

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 27-L.Fournette to JAX 38 for -1 yards (33-D.James).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model