Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 45 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to JAX 17, Center-45-C.Mazza. 13-M.Walker to JAX 22 for 5 yards (45-C.Mazza). PENALTY on JAX-85-C.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.53 EP
57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model