4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 45

What Actually Happened

(5:40) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.47 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model