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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP