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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model