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HC Pete Carroll
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 20:20 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

SEA
47.0%
LA
53.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.168 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
LA 24
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SEA

Neiko Thorpe CB Out Core
Nick Bellore RB Doubtful Quadricep
Mychal Kendricks LB Doubtful Hamstring
Luke Willson TE Doubtful Hamstring
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Core
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Neck

LA

Gerald Everett TE Out Knee
Rob Havenstein T Doubtful Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 12
–
LA 28

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:39 FG SEA (8:39) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – LA 0
  • Q1 05:12 TD LA (5:12) 34-M.Brown left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – LA 6
  • Q2 11:33 TD LA (11:33) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – LA 13
  • Q2 00:56 TD LA (:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-C.Kupp for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – LA 20
  • Q3 13:05 TD SEA (13:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Diggs [49-Sm.Griffin] at SEA 45. 37-Q.Diggs for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – LA 21
  • Q4 11:13 TD LA (11:13) 30-T.Gurley left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – LA 27
  • Q4 07:07 FG SEA (7:07) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 12 – LA 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (8:39) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 86%

    (7:36) (Pass formation) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 17-M.Turner.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (6:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to LA 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-N.Webster to LA 28 for -1 yards (27-M.Blair).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LA 48, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

    (5:45) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-R.Green), Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 25%

    (2:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LA 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:10) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SEA 33, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 83-D.Moore ran ob at SEA 36 for 3 yards (48-T.Howard).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to LA 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-N.Webster pushed ob at LA 21 for 11 yards (25-T.Homer). PENALTY on LA-20-J.Ramsey, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LA 10.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (7:07) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to SEA 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 83-D.Moore MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 25, recovered by SEA-28-U.Amadi at SEA 18.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 18 at the 90 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 10-J.Gordon to SEA 33 for 23 yards (22-T.Hill).