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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to LA 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-N.Webster to LA 28 for -1 yards (27-M.Blair).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model