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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LA 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-N.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model